The return of VAT on the import of electric vehicles from January 1, 2026 has become a notable event on the Ukrainian car market. However, it is not just one, but a flash of attention. Stanislav Buchatsky spoke about the deeper structural features of the market on Radio NV.
A year without overall growth, but with a record anomaly
If we look at the Ukrainian car market as a whole, 2025 was not a year of rapid growth. According to Buchatsky, the domestic resale market even showed a slight decline compared to the previous year. That is, the classic segments did not undergo sharp changes.
Against this background, electric cars became an exception. They formed the main anomaly of the year. The peak fell on December, when more than 30 thousand electric cars were imported and registered in Ukraine. The Ukrainian car market had never known such volumes before. In total, 84 thousand used electric cars and about 22–23 thousand new ones were imported during the year.
At the same time, as Buchacki emphasizes, a significant part of this volume did not reflect the real final demand. Some cars were imported "for themselves", but a significant number — with the expectation of further resale after the benefits ended. This, in his opinion, created the effect of mass, but not quite market, electromobilization.
How the Ukrainian hype raised and lowered prices abroad
One of the key, but not obvious, topics of conversation was Ukraineʼs role in price formation on foreign markets. In the second half of 2025, increased demand from Ukrainian buyers began to affect prices in Europe and the US. Bids at auctions increased, final transaction prices rose, and this happened even before the actual VAT refund.
After January 1, 2026, this mechanism began to work in the opposite direction. Demand from Ukraine decreased sharply, and prices abroad, according to Buchatsky, went down. That is why today there is a situation where the final price of an electric car in Ukraine, including VAT, in many cases may be close to the one at which the same cars were purchased earlier without VAT, but during the peak period of excitement.
This point is important not only for the electricity segment. It demonstrates a general principle: tax changes are not always linearly translated into price if the balance of supply and demand on the global market changes at the same time.
Early 2026: A market with surplus and unstable prices
Record import volumes at the end of 2025 also have a downside. At the start of 2026, the market became oversaturated, especially in the electric segment. According to Buchatsky, real demand turned out to be less than the number of imported cars.
This means that in the first months of the year, prices are not formed according to a single logic. Sellers who are interested in selling cars quickly are forced to lower the price, while those who have set a margin and are ready to wait postpone sales. As a result, the same model can have significantly different price offers. Buchacki calls spring — the beginning of summer a benchmark for stabilization, when the market will gradually "digest" the surplus.
Electric cars are no longer exotic, but they are not a panacea either
Despite the correction, electric vehicles remain an established segment in Ukraine. In recent years, an infrastructure of charging stations, a service and repair market, both official and private, as well as established supply channels have emerged around them.
It is also important that even after the VAT refund, electric cars remain the most predictable in terms of customs costs. Low excise duty, no customs duties and additional fees make them cheaper to import compared to cars with internal combustion engines or hybrids. This does not mean a new hype, but it means a stable presence of the segment in the market.
At the same time, Buchatsky draws attention to factors that are often forgotten. Sales of electric cars in Ukraine turned out to be sensitive to the state of the power system. During periods of the most acute problems with power supply after massive attacks, sales of electric cars fell by 20–30%. That is, even the formed segment is highly dependent on the general situation in the country.
Automotive, traffic jams and myths about "too many cars"
Another important point that went beyond the topic of electricity was raised in the conversation. Despite the feeling of congested roads in large cities, Ukraine remains a country with a relatively low level of motorization. Today, it is about 250–260 cars per thousand people, while in most European countries this figure reaches 600 or more.
According to Buchatsky, the problem of traffic jams is not so much an excessive number of cars, but a matter of traffic organization, infrastructure, and urban planning. Therefore, the demand for cars as a means of mobility will remain stable, especially in a country with a large territory and significant distances between settlements.
They buy what they have enough money for.
The economy remains the determining factor for the Ukrainian car market. The sales structure is very clear: about 80% of transactions are for cars worth up to $10,000. More expensive segments are marginal, and the so-called “premium” (cars over $30,000) makes up only 1.5–2% of the market.
Unlike most European countries, Ukraine has virtually no mass lending or leasing programs. That is why the new car market remains small, and the bulk of transactions are domestic resales and imports of used cars.
Import as a model without alternative
Under current conditions, imports remain virtually the only way to renew the car fleet. Sales of new cars in Ukraine are at the level of 6–6.5 thousand per month, while domestic resales reach about 80 thousand, and imports of used cars — 25–30 thousand per month. Before the start of the full-scale invasion, this figure reached 50 thousand, which indicates a preserved but unrealized potential.
Chinese parallel imports and new restrictions
A separate topic was the situation with Chinese cars. A significant part of electric cars from China came to Ukraine through parallel imports, which allowed to maintain a significant price advantage. New restrictions requiring at least 180 days between the first registration of a car in China and its export complicate this model.
The key question that remains open is whether the Ukrainian consumer will be willing to buy a Chinese electric car without a price difference of 30–40% compared to European analogues. The answer, as Buchatsky emphasizes, will be given by the market itself.
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