The past year, in addition to being under martial law again, also left behind several events that affected the car market. One of them is a change in the rules for the mobilization of transport, when the state can seize “extra” cars from an owner who has 2 or more cars for defense needs. This decision led to a “boom of re-registrations” in the spring — those who had 2 or more cars registered to themselves re-registered them (or gave them away) to relatives or friends. Others quickly looked for owners of cars they had previously sold “by proxy,” and when all possibilities had been exhausted — “extra” cars were scrapped (removed from the register forever). This year, the statistics of these operations turned out to be the highest ever.
Another factor is the new principles for assessing vehicles that are being sold. Now, without a certificate from experts (except for the first sale of a passenger car, motorcycle or moped in a year), it will not be possible to re-register a car. And this decision also left its mark — some small businesses (private "racers" and, letʼs call them "individual dealers"), due to the fact that the possibility of valuing cars (as it was before the change in the rules) for a few hryvnias has disappeared, are forced to pay considerable taxes on the full cost of these cars, and this, in the case of the sale of the third and subsequent vehicles — more than 20% of the price of the car, which takes any sales transaction far beyond market prices. Therefore, part of the market has again gone into the shadows — the "fashion" for power of attorney is returning, sellers are looking for acquaintances to whom they can register "customized" cars, and official statistics of trades are sagging.
Let us also mention here the talk about the introduction of a military tax (15%) on the first registration — there was so much news that the market initially reacted with an increase in the subsegments of new cars and "freshly driven", which later predictably changed to a decrease in volumes there, as the information panic forced some buyers to make a decision faster than planned. In the end, this tax was not introduced, but the waves on the car market activity charts remained.
The introduction of an increased military tax for individuals when selling cars, which took place at the end of the year along with a general increase in a number of taxes, has not yet been reflected in statistical data — this will be worth discussing next year.
Fuel prices remained relatively stable until the introduction of increased excise tax rates in September. This was most evident in the price of “autogas” — a liquefied propane-butane mixture. In December, the price of LPG reached 37 hryvnias per liter, and fuel market experts predict 40 or more hryvnias/liter in the future. Which ultimately leads to a barely noticeable saving effect when using LPG. So in such cases, the share of “gas” cars will decrease.
The increase in the household electricity tariff has not affected the electric vehicle segment, and will not, because even at 4.32 UAH/kWh, this type of vehicle remains the cheapest among all others. And even at 15-16 UAH per kilowatt at high-speed electric stations, electric vehicles win in terms of mileage cost over their closest competitors — passenger cars with LPG.
What to expect in the car market in 2025?
Each forecast is more accurate, the fewer “if” conditions it contains. We undoubtedly believe in our Victory, and, like all Ukrainians, we hope that it will come as soon as possible. It is clear that after the lifting of martial law, demobilization, and the holding of elections, many changes will occur. There will probably be some that will also affect the car market. Then, as always, IDA specialists will study each of them and share their conclusions with the audience. In the meantime, we are making the following forecasts for current conditions.
Passenger car segment
The secondary market during 2024 showed an average monthly (real) volume of about 80 thousand resales per month, with a tendency to decrease closer to the end of the year. It is worth noting that experts from the Institute for Car Market Research were able to name this indicator last year with an error of only 2%, that is, as accurately as it is possible in principle. As for the forecast for 2025, the real volumes of the "secondary" will remain unchanged, however, in the statistics, due to the factors mentioned in the first part of this article, we will see slightly lower official numbers of resales.
Imports remained close to a "statistical plateau," and only towards the end of the year did the volume of "newly imported" cars unexpectedly drop. It is likely that next year, in monthly breakdowns, we will see about 16,000 "freshly imported" cars, with a tendency for this number to decrease.
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New passenger cars. Every month in Ukraine there are 5-6 thousand buyers of new cars. As analysts of the IDA predicted in the previous forecast, even naming the peak value of 8 thousand cars, which was recorded in August. This stability will remain next year, since there are no factors that could affect the increase or decrease in trading volumes. And here, to a certain (albeit insignificant) extent, the introduction of "Euro-6" will have its influence.
Electric cars
The main factor that previously determined the saturation point of this market subsegment, which was the presence of a socket at home or in the garage, is now fading into the background. More and more electric vehicles are appearing with a range of 300...500 kilometers and the possibility of accelerated charging at public EV stations, which opens up new opportunities for their buyers — there is no need for daily charging, and long distances can be covered with a time expenditure not much greater than for a car with an internal combustion engine.
Next year will be the last (until other legislative initiatives are announced) for the benefits of their customs clearance. Therefore, an increase in trading volumes in this segment is expected closer to the end of 2025, with a peak in November-December. Perhaps from the middle of the year (if dealers have the financial opportunity) there will be an increase in the import of electric cars from the USA, so to speak, as a reserve, before their price increases. The total replenishment of the fleet will be about 70 thousand electric cars.
As for prices, which have been rapidly declining in recent years, this process has now slowed down, and there is even a noticeable increase in average prices for individual models. Which is quite logical — average prices at auctions remain unchanged, the associated costs of delivering and repairing electric cars do not decrease, only early-release models become cheaper due to natural aging (rather, battery wear). And if customs clearance privileges are not extended — it is obvious that closer to the middle or end of next year, we should prepare for an increase in the price of electric cars.
Small commercial vehicle segment
This and the following segments of commercial transport (excluding buses) have been showing a noticeable decrease in volumes for more than half a year. It would be considered a good result if LCV sales remain at the level of 3-4 thousand/month. However, it is better to prepare for the next decrease in activity here, the reason for which is the general decrease in business activity in the country due to the war.
Trucks of group >3.5 t
From the total average monthly trading volume in this segment of 2-3 thousand units per month, at the end of 2024 the volumes fell to less than 2 thousand. Moreover, the decrease (as in the previous segment) did not occur suddenly, but gradually, which can be seen in our monthly publications on the relevant charts. The reasons are similar to those for small commercial vehicles. The postponement of the Euro eco-standards, which was adopted by parliamentarians, will not lead to an increase in the volume of trading in trucks of all groups. We expect monthly volumes here to be close to (or even up to) 2 thousand units in total.
Tractor units and semi-trailers
As with trucks of the >3.5 T group, the volume of tractor unit trades has fallen by half. The reasons are the same — the general state of the economy. Next year, we should expect total trades of all types of tractor units at the level of about 1.5 thousand units per month.
Events in the segment of semi-trailers for them developed synchronously with tractors. A double decrease in volumes, the lowest figures at the end of 2024. The expected number of semi-trailers sold (all new and used) is similar to the tractor segment, about 1.5 thousand per month, which should rather be perceived as the upper limit of the capabilities of this segment.
Buses
Next year, we can expect the total volume of trade in this segment to be approximately at the same level as observed during 2024: 500...1000 buses per month, with the advantage of the secondary market and a slight replenishment of the fleet with newly arrived imported used or new locally produced buses. The volumes of purchased vehicles here will be most influenced by government purchases of new locally produced buses.
Motorcycles
In 2024, IDA analysts expected a total volume of over 60 thousand purchased motorcycles of all types. It turned out a little more than 70 thousand — despite the general trend towards stagnation in most segments, motor vehicles were purchased more actively than in previous years. Also with the advantage of new products (among which over 80% are Chinese products).
It would seem that the signal is positive — but on the contrary: inexpensive vehicles, which include most motorcycles purchased in Ukraine, are more likely additional confirmation of the low solvency of the population, which buys two-wheeled vehicles not for sports or entertainment (as in countries with developed economies), but as everyday transportation, mainly in rural areas or small towns, in order to have mobility. Instead of buying cars.
Online trading
Throughout 2024, we monitored the activity of the leading car sales ad sites in Ukraine. We also monitored the media (or social) activity of dealers (or individual sellers) on social networks. These observations show a noticeable outflow of users from “classic” ad sites, and a significant increase in the number of local social groups — both private projects of individual dealers and regional groups with car sales ads. The most common platforms used for this are TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, and Telegram.
Free (or relatively inexpensive) placement of ads on such independent platforms, their proximity to buyers in certain regions, and in some cases, their proven effectiveness in finding customers, are attracting more and more private sellers. At the same time, car dealers are increasing the creation of their own content on alternative multimedia platforms, which, according to practitioners of this activity, gives a much higher effect in terms of the number of calls at costs comparable to or even lower than business packages offered by electronic bulletin boards. Next year, these processes will continue, the reach of classifieds will decrease, and local projects based on social networks will develop instead.
Trade-in
At the end of this year, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a number of decisions that simplify the work of dealers, which in turn should contribute to the development of car exchange at car dealerships, that is, the provision of the Trade-in service. It should also be taken into account that with the constant increase in citizensʼ dependence on time-based payment (or presence at the place of activity), they have less and less time to engage in sales on their own. Therefore, the demand for this service is already considerable, the main thing is to organize it correctly — to offer adequate buyback prices, promotional buyback of previously sold cars by the same dealer, competitive prices for cars that the buyer wants to receive with a surcharge. After all, there is a lot of experience with Trade-in in the USA or in certain European countries, at special courses from the Institute for Car Market Research you can learn how to effectively build such (and any other) promising activity in the automotive business.
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