The following calculations are based on an analysis of the real sector of the car market. The IDA team analyzed almost 3 million records of the aggregator Automoto.ua about the announcement of the sale of cars from all (about 100) car websites of Ukraine.
Considering the fact that prices in advertisements are directly dependent on the principle of market equilibrium (that is, when the sellerʼs request must meet the buyerʼs expectations so that the goods are sold in a reasonable time), as well as the fact that these prices are formed under the influence of a number of external factors, they can to be used for market analysis as indicator values that demonstrate or explain the state of affairs at a certain moment, or explain the influence of external factors on the market. Possession of such information allows business analysts to determine tendencies (trends) and forecast the state of the market for the future, to plan activities taking into account historical and current information for future periods.
Online market for cars with mileage: more ads
Over the past 12 months, 2.7 million offers for the sale of used cars were placed on Ukrainian Internet sites for posting advertisements for the sale of motor vehicles. This number includes only newly added ads, excluding duplicates that may occur on multiple bulletin boards.
The highest activity of sellers for the mentioned period was recorded in May 2024, when 248.3 thousand were placed. ads The lowest activity was observed in July of the same year, 202.8 thousand. ads
The number of ads has increased slightly:from 210.1 thousand in October to 223.3 thousand in November (+6.3%). In a year-on-year comparison, the picture is as follows: in November 2023, online sites contained 214.5 thousand offers, which is 4.1% more than now.
After several months of slowly fading volumes, it is the Internet authoring market (which should be understood as the ad site environment) that has seen some growth in supply, as seen in the following chart. Unfortunately, there are currently no tools that could make it possible to accurately determine the volume of the offer on alternative sites for the sale of automotive equipment — in social networks, messengers or dealersʼ own websites. But even without calculations, it is noticeable that this part of Internet trade is actively developing.
The potential financial value of all cars offered (or offered) for sale over the past 12 months increased slightly to $24.2 billion (vs. $23.7 billion).
Total asking price across all listings in November was $2.29 billion, a 12-month high.
The maximum and minimum bid saturation in monetary terms correlates with the number of ads mentioned above, which is also visible in the chart. On average, Ukrainians offer $2 billion worth of used cars for sale on the Internet every month.
Price structure: the presence of more expensive cars is increasing
For a year, i.e., comparing November-2024 with November last year, the diagram showing the saturation of the market with offers of various price groups, as always, does not show too contrasting changes. However, if you look at the data in more detail, you can see that the share of budget offers has decreased, while the presence of cars priced over $20,000 has increased.
The redistribution of shares in favor of more expensive cars can be caused by several factors. One of them is the need for money in crisis situations, which can arise for car owners more and more often in war conditions. The next is the increase in the presence of "almost new" cars on the used market, that is, when independent dealers expand their offer with cars 1...3 years old, imported from China or the USA, and which compete with or replace the missing offer from official representatives of certain brands.
Average bid price: An unexpected breakout
After five months in which the average total price of all offers remained at $5,500, this time it jumped sharply to the $6,500 mark — setting a record. At the same time, the following phenomena should be understood correctly: this is not a sign of a total increase in the price of all cars, it is a consequence of replenishing the offer on the secondary market with more expensive cars, mainly from the USA, as well as China, partly from Europe. A consequence of what was described in the previous section and what will be described in more detail at the end of this review.
Changes in prices by segment (based on fuel/power)
In the section of individual segments, with distribution by type of power plant, the lowest average price, which according to the results of September is $2,650 (+$150), has passenger cars with gas cylinder equipment. It is worth noting that this segment may soon undergo significant changes — more details on this in a separate article related to the fuel market.
The most popular segment on the market is gasoline cars, occupying an intermediate position between the just described cars with HBO and diesel cars. The current average price of all offers here is $6,500, immediately $1,000 more than a month ago.
Diesel passenger cars with mileage are now asking $7,700 on average, $200 more than a year ago. All three segments just described (which at the same time are the most massive in the secondary market) were fairly stable in terms of average prices until October of the current year, and noticeable fluctuations began only in November.
The segment of cars with hybrid power plants (in total, all subtypes such as MHEV/HEV/PHEV), unlike the previous, relatively stable ones, has always been distinguished by a certain excitement. And this time: minus $500 compared to the previous period, and the total is $12,200.
About the segment of electric cars: a long-term decrease in the average price for this group changed in October to a noticeable increase — up to $15,400, that is, an increase of $500 compared to September. And it continued in November with an equally contrasting indicator — plus $1,400 and an average price of $16,800. At the same time, it is worth considering that most of the data was collected even before the activation of terrorists to attack our power system, when the supply of electricity was still relatively stable with minimal application of restrictions schedules supply of "light". On the other hand, it becomes obvious that when the market is increasingly filled with electric cars with an average range of 400...500 km and powerful (fast) charging ports, daily home charging is not as relevant as for owners of the first generations of electric cars, with a range of up to 100 km. The largest increase in the average price for this segment indicates the expansion of offers with more expensive cars in the "secondary", mostly due to an increase in the number of offers with young electric cars — up to 1...3 years.
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