January demonstrated what happens when the rules of the game change radically.
- Volume: A total of 1,374 used electric vehicles received their first registration (compared to 25,000 in December).
- MM Dynamics: A staggering -94.5%. This is not just a decline, it is a stoppage of the assembly line. The tens of thousands of cars in December have turned into a barely noticeable trickle.
- YY Dynamics: Even in a relatively calm January last year, we see a drop of -53.7%.
At the same time, it is impossible to call such a picture unexpected: everyone was ready for the VAT refund, as well as for the fact that the December market oversaturation would somehow turn into a pause. Which is what we have now.
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Top 10 brands
Even with such minimal volumes, the hierarchy of leaders remains quite stable.
- Tesla (337 units) remains the leader, but this is more likely due to inertia and the arrival of cars stuck in ports, logistics terminals, or at car service stations (if the cars are auctioned).
- Nissan (208 units) is a strong second place, mainly due to the popularity of the budget segment.
- KIA (120 units) and Hyundai (96 units) — the Korean duo is steadily closing requests for "fresh" and technological crossovers.
- Volkswagen (94 units) — remains in the top five, although its used "electric cars" are currently experiencing serious pressure from the brandʼs new Chinese models.
Audi, Renault, Chevrolet, Mercedes-Benz and BYD round out the top ten. The presence of the latter brand in used car imports is an interesting symptom that Chinese "electric cars" have begun to actively pass from hand to hand as used cars. At the same time, if Volkswagenʼs average age of imported cars is 7 years (i.e. the e-Golf prevails, not various IDs of Chinese origin), then for BYD this figure is 1.7 years — it is difficult to say whether this is one-year-old cars from China or imports of "almost new" cars with used documents).
Top 10 models
In the model competition, we see a return to the "roots."
- Nissan Leaf (177 units) topped the rating again. When the market is stormy, people return to proven and cheapest solutions.
- Tesla Model 3 (159 units) and Model Y (123 units) are breathing down the back of the leader. This is the basis of modern imports, which will find a buyer even with VAT, albeit in smaller quantities.
- KIA Niro and Renault ZOE are stable choices for the city and commerce.
- The Volkswagen Golf, Hyundai Kona and Chevrolet Bolt also make the top ten. The list is rounded out by the classic Tesla Model S and the charismatic (or rather, specific) KIA Soul.
Expert opinion
Stanislav Buchatsky, Institute for Car Market Research, comments:
"The 94.5% drop in imports is a direct consequence of the VAT refund. However, this should not be considered a catastrophe. We are seeing classic market saturation: so many cars were imported to Ukraine in December that the supply at domestic sites now exceeds demand many times over.
The market simply took a break to digest these stocks. So far, buyers are choosing cars that are already on the license plates at the "old" prices. Real import volumes will begin to recover only when domestic warehouses are emptied, and buyers get used to the new customs clearance mathematics. Now we are observing a temporary anomaly, not a change in the strategic course towards electrification.
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