The New Year traditionally brings Ukrainian drivers new figures on gas station signs. The next stage of excise duty increases should hit their pockets, but a scenario is unfolding on the world market that could save the Ukrainian wallet. Oleksandr Sirenko, an expert at the NaftoRynok consulting agency, in an interview for Ostapʼs Garage, explained what will happen to prices, why HBO is becoming a "suitcase without a handle," and how gas stations are turning into restaurants.
Main theses:
Excise tax arithmetic: what to prepare for?
The next stage of fuel excise tax increases will begin on January 1, 2025. This is a requirement of European integration and the need to replenish the defense budget. According to "dry" mathematics, this should add to current prices:
- Gasoline: +1.80 UAH/l
- Diesel: +2.20 UAH/l
- Liquefied gas (LPG): +1.50 UAH/l
However, Oleksandr Sirenko emphasizes: the excise tax is calculated in euros. Therefore, the main enemy of the price is not the tax itself, but the exchange rate. If the hryvnia holds, the price increase will be moderate.
Lifebuoy: World oil is falling
While Ukraine is raising taxes, the world is lowering oil prices. Quotations have fallen to $59 per barrel.
"If oil continues to fall, we may not see an increase in prices due to excise duty. The decline in world prices will offset the tax burden," predicts Sirenko. Optimistic scenario: prices will remain in the range of UAH 60–65 per liter of gasoline.
The end of the era of "economical diesel" and LPG
The most painful blow awaits diesel car owners and HBO fans.
- Diesel: The excise tax on it is increasing the most significantly (+2.20 UAH). Buying a used diesel car loses its economic sense — maintenance is expensive, and fuel savings disappear.
- LPG (Gas): The difference in the cost of driving 100 km on gasoline and gas has decreased to 100 UAH (600 UAH versus 500 UAH).
- Insight: The number of new HBO installations has dropped to a critical 1,000 per month across the country.
- Verdict: Gas remains interesting only as a "reserve tank" in case of fuel shortage, not as a way to save money overall.
Bioethanol: horror stories didnʼt come true
Despite the panic in the spring of 2024, adding bioethanol to gasoline did not lead to mass car breakdowns. The market adapted, and there are practically no complaints from drivers. The main goal is to reduce the import of petroleum products (saving foreign exchange up to $400 million) and support Ukrainian alcohol producers.
Gas station: Coffee beats gasoline
The gas station market is transforming. Due to the war and occupation, the active fleet has shrunk (minus 40% of the registered one), but fuel consumption has fallen by only 5-7%. Networks (in particular, UPG, Ukrnafta, which entered Shell/Glusco facilities) are focusing on non-fuel sales.
"There are people who come to gas stations with their thermos (economists), and there are those who go for the atmosphere. Gas stations are becoming centers of attraction, where fuel is just an accompanying product to coffee and hot dogs," the expert summarizes.
