Experts from the Institute for Automotive Market Research, together with the analytical agency "NaftoRynok", figured out how significant the tax pressure will be and how it will affect price tags at gas stations for the end consumer.
Expertʼs comment
Oleksandr Sirenko, analyst at NaftoRynok agency:
"From January 1, 2026, Ukraine will see another increase in fuel taxes, in particular excise taxes. If we translate the changes into numbers (at the current exchange rate of 49.5 UAH/euro), the picture looks like this:
- Gasoline: excise duty will increase from 271.7 to 300.8 euros per 1,000 liters. This is +29.1 euros per thousand liters, or +1.73 UAH/liter of tax burden.
- Diesel: excise duty will increase from 215.7 to 253.8 euros. Here the difference is more significant — +38.1 euros, which will add 2.26 UAH/l to the cost.
- LPG (liquefied petroleum gas): excise duty will increase from 173 to 198 euros. The difference is 25 euros, or +1.49 UAH/l.
That is, the biggest changes will apply to diesel fuel: plus 38.1 euros per 1,000 liters, which will add more than 2 hryvnias per liter when cleared through customs.
As for how this will affect retail prices, there are two possible scenarios:
- Dependence on the external market. It is difficult to predict what the market will be like in late December — early January. Oil, and, accordingly, oil products in Europe may become cheaper, and we in Ukraine may not feel the increase in taxes on fuel — the decrease in the purchase price will compensate for the increase in excise duty. However, the opposite may also happen: if the market in the world and Europe goes up rapidly, then both the change in excise duty and events in the external market will be reflected on the ceiling of gas stations.
- "Gradual increase. Under conditions of stability (taking into account exchange rates and the absence of a deficit), a gradual increase in prices at gas stations can be predicted. For example, every decade of January the price may increase by 50-60 kopecks/l. This would be predictable and more favorable for the end consumer than a sharp jump in one day."
Instead of a conclusion
While the fuel market is preparing for turbulence, this becomes another argument in favor of electrification. Yes, from January 1, electric cars will also become more expensive due to the VAT refund upon purchase. However, the cost of their operation remains consistently low. Against the background of the fact that diesel — the main fuel for commerce and long-distance travel — will receive the greatest tax burden (+2.26 UAH/l), the "electric train" finally consolidates its status as the most profitable transport for the wallet, even if the entrance ticket to this club will become more expensive.
- Buying a car? Check it by VIN code now with CEBIA !
