Market Pulse: How many cars do Ukrainians buy at US auctions every week?
Experts from the Institute for Automotive Market Research, based on data from the AutoAstat service , analyzed the dynamics of vehicle purchases by Ukrainian dealers and private customers at insurance auctions in the USA and Canada (Copart, IAAI, etc.) over the past 20 weeks.
This indicator is an important leading indicator: it demonstrates the real state of demand today, 2–3 months before these cars physically cross the Ukrainian border and appear in the statistics of the first registrations of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
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On average, the Ukrainian market generates stable demand at the level of 1,300–1,400 cars per week. However, the graph demonstrates significant volatility: from peak values of almost 1,500 cars to sharp drops to 800 units. What exactly makes Ukrainians hit the brakes or, conversely, actively buy up lots, the expert explains.
Ostap Novitsky, an expert at the Institute for Car Market Research, comments:
"If you look at the graph, it resembles a roller coaster. But there is nothing random in this chaos. Every rise and every fall has a clear explanation, related either to the holiday calendar or to Ukrainian tax reality."
Events A and B: American calendar: “The first two dips on the chart are purely technical in nature. Mark (A) on the 27th week is US Independence Day. Mark (B) on the 36th week is Labor Day. During these periods, auctions go on long weekends, the number of lots decreases, logistics freezes. Accordingly, Ukrainians physically buy less, because the supply on the market is minimal. These are seasonal fluctuations that we see every year.”
Event C: Race to the deadline: “The peak values in weeks 41–42 (almost 1,400 cars) are the “last train” for electric car buyers. The so-called logistics deadline has been triggered. The journey of a car from the USA takes about 2 months, or even longer. In order to be guaranteed to have time to deliver an electric car by December 31, 2025 (while zero VAT benefits are in effect), the car had to be won at the auction by mid-October. Buyers understood this perfectly well and tried to make it.”
Event D: Local news + panic: "The most interesting anomaly occurred in weeks 43–44. The market collapsed to an annual minimum of 826 cars. Two factors overlapped here. First, the "window of opportunity" closed: buying an electric car at this time meant guaranteed receipt of it in January 2026. Second, it was during these days (October 22) that news broke into the information space about the "extension of customs clearance privileges" and the instant refutation of this idea from the relevant committee. This uncertainty ("will there be VAT or not?") forced buyers to take a break. No one wanted to risk paying +20% (in fact, more) to the cost of the car, or, believing the "news", postponed the purchase.
However, already from the 45th week we see a recovery in demand. The market has adapted, emotions have subsided, and buyersʼ focus has probably shifted to cars with internal combustion engines, for which the arrival date is not critical."
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