The information that we will consider further is obtained on the basis of the analysis of the real sector of the car market, in the part of the offer. The IDA team analyzed data from the main Ukrainian Internet resources, which display ads for the sale of passenger cars, and determined the average mileage, as well as their dependence on the age of the offered vehicle.
Generalized statistical data from European countries regarding the annual mileage of a private car is about 15-20 thousand kilometers per year. That is, an average 10-year-old car, if it did not work in a taxi or corporate fleet, should have a mileage of 150...200 thousand km. And what indicators will we get in Ukraine?
Here is the first chart showing average ad runs for each of the past 13 months (Oct-2023 to Oct-2024). Interestingly, this indicator has never exceeded 200,000 km. And it would be possible to stop there, if it were not for the fact that the average age in our secondary market is about 15 years.
In such cases, if we rely on European statistics, the average mileage should be from 300 to 400 thousand km, but no, it stubbornly sticks to "up to 200". Why so? Maybe Ukrainian motorists simply drive less? To better understand this question, another chart is needed, on which you can see the total mileage figure for individual years of production. Theoretically, it should look like a triangle — the sharp end near the 2024 release year, and a proportional increase with the increase in the age of the car. But is it really so?
And in fact, it is not easy to see the triangle here — there are some conventional outlines, but there is no linearity of the increase in mileage with age. And even more: after the mark "1998" in general, the average mileage becomes less. Do all these cars have worn out front gears, and they move only in reverse, "unwinding" previously "winded" kilometers?
Well, it gets more interesting, and further we offer to visualize this data in another way: the average annual mileage for individual years of production. Previously, such a schedule should consist of columns of approximately the same height, because regardless of age, the car is used for the same needs, so it should "run" the European 15-20 thousand km.
As can be seen in the diagram, the range of 15-20 thousand km is really present, from 2021 to 2010. Then there is a paradoxical phenomenon: the average annual mileage becomes much smaller. It can be assumed that the older the car, the more time it spends at the service station, because it is worn out, but not so much that the intensity of its operation has decreased by three or even four times!
It is clear that when the numbers contradict logic, the reason for the dataʼs inconsistency lies somewhere. And the reason for this most likely lies in the fact that, despite the availability of services for checking the history of cars, they are not used very actively, and some sellers are still engaged in "twisting" odometers. This is confirmed by the "magic" of the number 200 — i.e. mileage up to 200,000 km, which many owners do not want to exceed in order not to lose the attractiveness of the car and reduce its price in proportion to its actual condition.
And this means that there are many options with invalid, understated odometer readings in the Ukrainian market in the Internet classifieds environment. Which carries the risk of buying a car that has exhausted its resource much more than the declared "up to 200 thousand" and will require additional unplanned maintenance costs or even replacement of expensive components such as an engine or gearbox.
In order not to come across such offers, it is worth checking the history of the car by the VIN code before buying it, for example, using the CEBIA online service, which records "twists" in European cars, if such have happened before.
Subscribe to the Telegram channel of the Auto Market Research Institute to be the first to receive information without ads or spam.
