After a significant jump in prices for liquefied autogas, which occurred in November-December last year, when you could see prices up to UAH 38/l on gas station shelves, the current price of this type of fuel at UAH 27/l looks much more attractive. It is also worth noting that during the past 20-30 days, the price of LPG has been decreasing almost daily, and only this week this "decline" has stopped.
Here are the volumes of HBO installations in Ukraine since the beginning of the year for passenger cars:
- January — 1383
- February — 1850
- March — 2092
- April — 1754
What is the connection between the price of autogas and the car market?
At the beginning of this year, analysts of the Institute of Auto Market Research determined that there is a direct connection: the lower the price of LPG (and it also remains close to double the difference in price from gasoline), the more cars are converted to run on a gas mixture. Conversely, increasing the price simultaneously reduces the number of installations. You can read more about this research in a separate article.
So, the current state of affairs will probably start the already known mechanisms again — conversion of cars to "gas" will become more popular. Of course, not all modern gasoline cars allow you to do this relatively simply and within a reasonable budget, for which the payback of HBO and its documentation would come in a relatively short time, but there are still Japanese and American cars on the market with engines without direct gasoline injection and turbochargers, on which it is appropriate to install HBO.
How long will the reduced price of "autogas" at gas stations last?
We asked Oleksandr Sirenko, an analyst at the NaftoRynok agency, about this :
"To begin with, it is worth understanding what is the reason for the slow price decline that we have observed now. It is quite simple: reducing the consumption of this type of fuel by individual buyers. People began to drive less, and accordingly, the demand for liquefied gas decreased. Most market operators reacted to this by gradually reducing prices — this is how they fight for the retail client. It is clear that everywhere there is a limit below which it becomes unprofitable to trade "autogas", so now the prices have been fixed.
How long such LPG prices will last depends on a large number of factors. The main one of which may be the revision of the fuel excise rates planned by the Parliament, and if the relevant draft law enters into force in its current version, liquefied gas mayincrease in price immediately by UAH 5.8/l .
That is, even without taking into account the potential problems with logistics due to the lack of international drivers, stock market quotations and changes in the exchange rate, already in the summer of this year the price of "autogas" may jump to UAH 33/l. Theoretically, this is still within the psychologically acceptable value for motorists (as previously determined by IDA analysts), in addition, gasoline and diesel fuel will become more expensive by 1.5...2 hryvnias/l due to the renewal of excise taxes. However, it is more about those who already have a car with HBO. As for new installations, the level of economic feasibility and attractiveness for consumers will decrease significantly. Which in the end can again cause a decrease in interest in cars with HBO and the number of conversions.
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