The first month of Russiaʼs full-scale invasion was particularly difficult, turbulent and uncertain. The situation was the same in the car market: it was difficult to identify any trends or track patterns. Now the situation has become more stable. The "tops" of used cars we are already familiar with are returning to the market. And what about car prices? Experts of the Institute of Car Market Research understood.
The analytics is based on information on prices for the most popular car models in sales ads on the largest online marketplace in Ukraine AUTO.RIA. It is worth noting that this is the price specified in the announcement, not the final price of the transaction. Given that in most cases there is a certain bargain at the time of purchase, the real price at which cars are bought may differ slightly.
Cars of 2000 — 2008 of release
In the ten most popular "affordable" cars of 2000-2008, it is impossible to identify a common trend for all. Each model has its own story. For example, the most popular in the domestic market Daewoo Lanos (the legacy of the once powerful Ukrainian manufacturer) has the "calmest" line of the average price. This can be explained by the fact that this model is not imported from abroad, and it does not actually compete with other cars, but simply occupies an intermediate place between the obsolete super-cheap Soviet-Russian "VAZ" and budget imported cars. Therefore, this car is simply gradually getting cheaper month by month and will continue to do so until the last "Lanos" is sent for disposal.
Prices for other models are at least partially, but dependent on imports, and the introduction of "zero customs clearance" in April could "bring down" prices for them, but there was no rapid collapse. Synchronous decrease in the right parts of the diagrams is noticeable, but currently it is insignificant. There has been no significant reduction, because, firstly, the total cost of delivery and registration of such cars, even in the absence of customs duties, is often even more expensive than buying the same car in the domestic market. And, secondly, the temporary effect of the law gives hope that the old rates of customs clearance will return, and therefore the prices of cars sellers are in no hurry to lower.
Interestingly, in previous months, some models had much greater "sagging" and rising average prices. At the same time, it is interesting that in the most difficult first month the tendency of mass reduction in price of a car is not noticeable. Therefore, it is difficult to definitively determine what has the greatest impact on the pricing of cars of this age category. The segment lives by its own rules, which do not depend too much on external factors, and prices are mostly set depending on the cars available in Ukraine, the fleet of which, compared to the following segments, is considerable.
Cars of 2009-2014 production
In the category of cars 2009-2014, the changes are more noticeable. All models have fallen in price by at least a few hundred dollars. This can be explained by several reasons.
The first is "zero" customs clearance. These models were quite popular among imported cars, so the appearance on the market of slightly cheaper options "pulled" prices down. And although in practice it is possible to find such cars at a price that, together with all the associated costs, would be significantly lower than those already available on the market, increased competition between sellers has contributed to lower prices.
In addition, some car dealers rushed to sell their existing cars as soon as possible to free up money before the introduction of duty-free imports, for which they also reduced prices. As a result, we have that cars of this age group have really become cheaper, and now it is cheaper to buy them than at the beginning of the year.
Cars of 2015-2021 of release
Until recently, the majority of relatively "fresh" cars with mileage were mostly imported from the United States, cars from the EU were inferior in percentage. Another part was brought from South Korea. That is why the Americans dominate among the five most popular cars of 2015-2019.
In terms of prices, most cars have risen in price. Only the Ford Focus, which has three sources of origin on the secondary market, fell in price — "dealer" cars previously sold in Ukraine by local car dealerships as new, and "freshly imported" from Europe and the United States. Most likely, the increase in cars with "zero customs clearance" from the EU countries led to a slight decrease in the average price of "Focus".
Prices have risen due to a combination of several factors. First, the global crisis in the automotive industry. The shortage of new cars encourages Europeans and Americans to either postpone the purchase of a car in the cabin, or choose a used one. Increased demand for insufficient supply in the market raises prices.
Secondly, the delivery of cars from America to Ukraine has become more difficult. First of all — due to the forced shutdown of Ukrainian seaports. Some of the "Americans" who were ordered at the beginning of the year come to us on new, changed routes, for which you have to pay several thousand dollars. And even without the redirection of containers, the delivery of cars from the United States through European ports has become a bit more expensive. Which, in the end, led to higher prices for them, along with a slight decrease in the supply of such cars.
So, in the car market of Ukraine today there are indeed cars that have fallen in price compared to the prices that were on them at the beginning of the year, but there are also those that have risen in price, and there are objective reasons for this. However, abrupt changes in market rules and conditions may lead to more significant changes. For example, in the "top" of the most popular models may be completely unexpected options, gradually displacing the former leaders. We will find out soon whether this is happening on the Ukrainian car market now.
