Domestic car sales: what to expect in 2022?

The year 2021 turned out to be quite successful for the automobile market of Ukraine. Despite the negative world trends, it is growing and evolving. What to expect in 2022 in the domestic market? Experts from the Institute of Car Research together with their partners predicted what will happen to car sales in Ukraine next year.

We have already written in the article about the future trends of used transport imports that 2022 will be both difficult for the car business and a time of opportunities. This also applies to car sales in the domestic market. Next year promises to be interesting, especially for those who are used to planning their tomorrow today, or even yesterday.

" The general trend is high demand for proven cars, and growing interest in" car commissions ", so merging and strengthening our own stationary car business next year will be a crucial step for many. At the same time, we should not forget about creating acceptable conditions for clients for trade-in and lending, ” says Ostap Novytskyi, an analyst at AUTO.RIA.

"In fact, we are repeating the story of our neighbors — Poland. Only the path they needed for development, we will go much faster. We need to be ready for this. The task of our Institute — to help businesses grow and develop, become civilized and earn more in new conditions ", Says Stanislav Buchatsky, head of the Institute of Car Research.

Read more about what awaits car dealers in 2022.

1. The need for mobility will remain quite high. Ukrainians will continue to show high demand for cars. The structure of the market will remain unchanged: due to low purchasing power, used cars will account for about 90% of all sales.
2. New cars will become more expensive (at least 5% under current conditions). The deficit will persist, the waiting time can be from 2 to 6 months. High demand will encourage you to look for alternatives — for example, in the segment of used cars with low mileage or give preference to products of the Chinese car industry.
3. Fewer new cars will hit the market. As a result , used cars will sell less, and they will stay in the hands of one owner longer. Increased demand will contribute to rising prices. Competition on the border of new and used car segments will increase somewhat (with low mileage and age up to 3 years).
4. Used cars can become more expensive. Rising prices from 15 to 20% on popular models of "freshly driven" cars in the first half of 2022 may cause the rise in price of these cars in the domestic market. Since about 30% of the secondary market is imported cars with mileage, the biggest impact will be on this segment. At the same time, the price of a car worth less than 5 thousand dollars can increase minimally — up to 5%.
5. The price structure will remain unchanged : 60% of used cars will buy up to 10 thousand dollars. In the event of a rise in prices, Ukrainians will choose cheaper models or sacrifice the technical condition of cars.
6. Against the background of increased market demand, the number of frauds may increase: "twists" of mileage, concealment of defects in technical condition. Buyers will often have to turn to vehicle history verification services.
7. The potential sales of new cars in 2022 is about 100-120 thousand cars. However, such an indicator can be achieved only if they are available in car dealerships, the development of financing programs and a stable economic situation in Ukraine.
8. Under the same conditions, the number of domestic resales of cars with mileage could reach one million over the next year. The announced service of registration of purchase and sale of a car "in a smartphone" can increase the number of re-registrations and bring out of the shadows part of the agreements (so-called sales on the technical certificate and "by power of attorney").
9. Most cars in 2022, as now, will be sold online. The number of online sales will increase and will be about 95% of all cars sold on the market.
10. The market will no longer be affected by the so-called "Eurobills", so it will be easier to plan and forecast the automotive business. Will help develop your own business car analyst based on BigData. The popularity of this approach will grow.
11. The business of selling used cars will develop. The trend of forming new brands and companies and the transition from "singles" in business to European/American-type commission sites will continue. More and more cars will be sold by legal entities instead of private sellers. The brandʼs reputation will become more and more important.
12. The process of forming a civilized car market can be accelerated by the liberalization of legislation on the sale of cars with mileage. In particular, the possibility of registering vehicles for used car dealers without physical visits to Service Centers, as previously introduced for new car dealers, could have a positive impact.
13. Car dealers will pay more and more attention to service and quality of service. Favorable price will become a less important argument in the face of growing competition.
14. The trend of buying tested cars will grow. More and more buyers, having gained enough negative experience, will provide cars with a confirmed history and conclusion on the technical condition, even if the price is slightly above average.
15. The main tools to increase car sales, which have the potential for development in 2022, will be financing instruments: lending and leasing.
16. The introduction of a technical inspection provided for in the Association Agreement with the European Union may change the structure of the market. If the procedure is carried out according to European standards and without the possibility of "agreeing", as it was before the abolition of maintenance, instructions on non-commissioning can be issued to approximately 15-20% of vehicles whose technical condition does not meet the requirements. This can affect relatively old vehicles over 25 years old.
17. Mandatory roadworthiness tests for private cars may also change the price structure. Cars of the Soviet period, as well as diesel cars with cut-out soot filters or petrol cars devoid of catalytic converters, can depreciate the most.
18. The need to dispose of unfit vehicles can encourage the development of recycling points. These are specialized enterprises of the European standard, not illegal "points" of scrap metal acceptance. As EU practice shows, this is a very profitable and profitable business.
19. The number of cars with electric motors may increase slightly, but the "boom" of electric mobilization should not be expected. New and even used cars are not yet affordable for most Ukrainians. The total number of new and used "green" cars sold in 2022 may be about 15 thousand.

Finally, we want to wish you the most important thing — a peaceful sky above your head, and cars will always be: on AUTO.RIA there are more than 200 thousand options, including yours, or one of the 10 million users of this marketplace is currently considering your offer. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year!

In 2022, the Car Research Institute will help grow, develop and earn more car business. Order personalized statistics, analytics and forecasting here: [email protected].