The price of a propane-butane mixture for cars at a gas station has risen sharply by more than UAH 10/l in a month. At the same time, the savings factor on "autogas" decreased from 45 to about 20%. Accordingly, the payback time of gas cylinder equipment has increased significantly. The first consequences for the car market — the number of conversions of cars officially registered by service centers of the Ministry of Internal Affairs to work on a gas mixture in November (compared to October) decreased by 18%.
What are the reasons for such a jump in prices, and is there a possibility that 36 hryvnias/l is a temporary phenomenon ?
Is there a risk of propane-butane shortage at gas stations?
Such a risk is always present, because now the market is 70% dependent on imports, and the rest is domestic production, whose infrastructure is constantly under threat of enemy attacks.
What factors caused the price of autogas to rise, and can the price of this fuel continue to rise?
The price can go up, and it has already happened. Recently (October-November), when the customs increased the list of documents for customs clearance and previously made it impossible to supply gas from the Russian Federation, a significant share of the resource of unknown origin (rather Russian) disappeared. However, it is too early to say that we have stopped consuming gas produced by a terrorist country, the logistical path of its supply is quite complex and confusing, and it still needs to be checked — we are waiting for fresh statistics.
The second component of the price crisis is strikes on the Polish border. They do not have a 100% impact on the supply of autogas, because gas tankers (as those carrying dangerous goods) still pass through. However, these actions had a partial impact — slowing down imports from Poland by 30...50%, depending on the type of fuel.
And are there factors that would indicate that soon the price of LPG will begin to decrease?
While we are talking to you, a ton of gas was sold for UAH 43,000 (approximately UAH 23.2/l) on the domestic market at one of the auctions. Add UAH 4-5 (logistics + margin) and this is the price that should be at the gas station. The decline in wholesale prices began last week, and this week prices have fallen altogether. Back on November 23, the same auction was at the level of 64,000 UAH/t (34.6 UAH/l). Our forecast is that the price of autogas will drop below UAH 30/l at gas stations by the end of December.
At the same time, information is increasingly appearing that the excise tax on "autogas" may be significantly increased. How will this affect its final price?
Recently, one of the peopleʼs deputies has been quite actively promoting the idea of increasing the excise tax from 52 to 169 euros per 1,000 liters. If this happens, then a liter of LPG in wholesale and retail will become more expensive by approximately UAH 5 only due to the difference in excise duties.
So, to summarize, we have a rather contradictory picture: there are a set of factors that can lead to a decrease in the price, and there are factors that can push it up (or at least — fixing it at the current level).
Oleksandr, which scenario do you think is the most likely?
Most likely, in December, the price of a gas station under the pressure of offers in the band will return to Octoberʼs values - up to UAH 30/l. In the future, I hope, there will be only market factors: quotation, currency, supply/demand. However, another episode of tax changes has been announced for next year, namely an attempt to raise the excise tax. And this, let me remind you, will cost drivers approximately plus UAH 5/l.
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